PokerStars Game #7: Tournament #, $6.00+$0.60 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600)


Table '124904837 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Kaybang (5605 in chips)
Seat 2: chaketera (2915 in chips)
Seat 4: leon11072002 (6992 in chips)
Seat 5: 7letters (7480 in chips)
Seat 6: dead homie 1 (4008 in chips)
Kaybang: posts the ante 50
chaketera: posts the ante 50
leon11072002: posts the ante 50
7letters: posts the ante 50
dead homie 1: posts the ante 50
leon11072002: posts small blind 300
7letters: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 7letters [Jc Ac]
dead homie 1: folds
Kaybang: raises 600 to 1200
chaketera: folds
leon11072002: folds
....?



will post the flop afterwards.


deadhomie and Kaybang are the more solid players, deadhomie is the looser.
The other two have been passive, tight and predictable.


My read is that Kaybang likely has a pair or an A

Okay, I just ran some quick numbers (based on the reads stated so far in this thread) and here's what they say:

When you take the pot down you will take a pot of 2350, profiting 1700 (650 are in the pot from antes and blinds)

When villain shoves back, assuming you call, you will either take down a pot of 11660 (profit of 6055) or lose 5605.

Action	Likelihood	Net equity
Villain folds	80%	1360
Villain shoves, You call and win	6.3384%	383.79012
Villain shoves, You call and lose	13.6616%	-765.73268
Total:		978.05744

So, looking at the odds, it looks like you stand to gain on average a little over 1.5xBBs with a move like this.  Now, while a solid read could very easily change my decision, I don't believe this is enough of a gain to justify a move like this.  Calling and losing a hand puts us in a very bad situation chip wise - we go from 1st to last in one hand, and with such high blinds we will be forced to make a move sooner rather than later.  In addition, with the chip counts relatively close together (with the exception of the small stack), a raise from villain means he has a decent hand - he doesn't want to risk his chips getting caught on a bonehead steal.  Best case scenario, we knock out Kaybang but our opponents - particularly leon - still have more than enough chips to battle it out and take it down.  This is clearly a +EV shove in a cash or winner take all game, but I don't believe it is in this game.

If you're second big stack in a SnG, the last thing you want to do is see the big stack call your preflop raise (same holds in your position - only player you REALLY don't want to play against is villain).  AJs is too strong to fold in this position, but if villain is going to win the hand approximately 1 in 6 times (either he sucks out on you or has you dominated with something like KK) it's not worth the loss in chips - if you win, you're in great position to take 1st, but a loss and you're as close to bust as possible.  Haven't run the ICM numbers on it but that's my feeling.

Anyway, a call here will tell villain "Hey, I have a hand - unless you hit the flop hard, I'd back off now".  Use the stop-n-go here and try to knock villain off the hand.  Unless he holds a high pocket pair on a harmless board, he won't want to jeopardize his position in the tournament either.

Playing around the bubble is always a game of chicken.  Chicken for the shortstacks ("Should I shove now with K8 or see if I can wait this out?), and for the big stacks (Do I want to go from easy money to average stack on a bluff?).  The key to winning is to stay the course, and not veer off at the last second.